Is There a Real Estate Bubble Forming?

Article from foreclosurephilippines.com

http://www.foreclosurephilippines.com/2012/12/philippine-property-outlook-2013.html

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What are the real estate trends? Is there a real estate bubble forming?

Rappler.com wrote about the sunrise sectors of 2013, and as expected, one of them is the real estate and construction sectors.

But what about the dreaded real estate bubble? Mr. Ramon C.F. Cuervo III, a respected real estate consultant, discussed it excellently in his post at cuervopropertyadvisory.wordpress.com, with insights culled from the talks at the University of Asia and the Pacific last October 23, 2012 entitled “Is a bubble in the Philippine Real Estate Sector Developing?”. Mr. Cuervo is my idol in real estate – I really learn a lot from his posts so I strongly urge everyone to read his blog from the latest post moving backwards (I am serious).

As discussed by Mr. Cuervo in his post, the discussion of Dr. Winston Padojinog, an economist from the University of Asia & the Pacific (UA&P), suggested that a bubble is indeed forming in the higher-end residential market segment. The basis was his research team’s study on housing supply and demand as discussed in an article in the website of renowned economist Dr. Bernardo Villegas. According to the statistics cited in the said article, the low-cost, economic and socialized housing segments experience shortages in most years from 2001 to 2011, while the high-end and mid-income market have some surplus units.  It is good to be aware of these statistics when making your investments.

Mr. Cuervo also discussed in his blog the talk of Mr. David Leechiu, Regional Director and Country Manager of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is projected that the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) industry will continue to grow until 2015 and this will support office space demand averaging about 400,000 square meters per year, and this demand will be met by the current and pipeline supply. CB Richard Ellis also has its own forecast. Definitely, one of the drivers of Philippine growth is the BPO industry so these figures are well-supported.

Renowned economist Dr. Bernardo Villegas also wrote about the perceived real estate bubble in his website. Here is a portion of his article which I feel is very important:

“…let me just summarize my current views about residential housing in the National Capital region, especially in Makati, Mandaluyong, Ortigas, Quezon City and other suburbs of Metro Manila.  After studying the findings of some of my colleagues at the University of Asia  and the Pacific concerning the five segments of residential housing, i.e. socialized housing, economic housing, low-cost housing, mid-level housing and high-end housing, the probability of an oversupply three or five years down the road is high only in the last segment, high-end housing in which the majority of  the buyers are purchasing units for investments or speculation and are not the ones occupying the units when they are built.  This is not the case with the other segments, especially the units selling from one to five million pesos.  The ones buying are those actually occupying the units once built, especially among the families of OFWs, the BPO workers or middle-income families with children studying in the universities in the urban centers of Metro Manila. In contrast, the units that cost P15 million or above are usually for rent.  But  there are just not enough rich Filipinos or expats who can afford to rent these units in the next three to five years.” (emphasis mine)

It is worth noting that property giant Ayala Land has set up subsidiaries to serve the low-end real estate market, namely Amaia and Bella Vita. Low-cost and socialized housing have tax incentives and are included in the Philippines’ 2012 Investment Priorities Plan. Both the government and the private sector are continuously improving and using as bases the findings culled from different studies.

Of interest to me too in particular are the projections of Mr. J. J. Reyes of American Institutes in Hawaii that a growth area in real estate is that catering to Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs) (also known as retirement villages). Mr. Cuervo and Mr. Raphael Torralba also have an insightful article on the retirement real estate sector, culled from talks at the Retirement and Healthcare Summit held last June 26, 2012. You can actually download the pdf copies of the talks here, just follow the tabs (Pre-Event and Sessions 1 to 4). With the Philippines’ excellent medical professionals, medical tourism and retirement villages are indeed bright prospects. I like the suggestion of having long-term leases instead of selling the properties outright to the retirees – I think this is a win-win situation for both the investor and the retiree. If a developer would be developing a retirement village near a good medical facility and offer it to investors condotel-style, I think it would be a very good investment.

Source: http://www.foreclosurephilippines.com/2012/12/philippine-property-outlook-2013.html#ixzz2HvtXHOQW